Pharma R&D Productivity

Interactive model companion to R&D Productivity and the Evolving Biopharmaceutical Ecosystem (Bonabeau, Schacht & Paul, 2025). Reproduces the Paul-style pipeline funnel and NPV framework with updated 2024 cost, cycle-time, and p(TS) estimates across five scenarios: Updated All-TA baseline, AI Scenario A (near-term AI), AI Scenario B (aspirational AI-native), China cycle-time reduction, and their combination. Discount rate 11%; costs in 2024 USD.

Global controls

The Pipeline tab uses the selected scenario/modality to redraw the Paul-style funnel picture. The NPV tab uses the same assumptions plus the commercial lifecycle tables below.

Pipeline picture

Dynamic reproduction of the notebook-style pipeline figure. Beige phases are discovery/preclinical; blue phases are clinical/regulatory.

Selected scenario summary

Phase-level computed results

Tornado sensitivity plots

Each bar varies one parameter at a time around the selected scenario and modality, while all other inputs stay fixed. Costs and cycle times are varied by a relative percentage. p(TS) is also varied by a relative percentage and capped to stay between 0.0001 and 0.999.

Tornado plot — capitalized cost at launch
Tornado plot — PV of R&D cost at T2H

Editable R&D phase values for the selected scenario

These are the scenario’s base phase values before modality-specific adjustments. Editing a value immediately redraws the pipeline figure and recalculates all NPV tables. Biologic-specific adjustments are controlled in the next table.

Editable modality-specific R&D adjustments

Biologic defaults: Phase III cost +80%; p(TS) +5 pp Phase I, +7 pp Phase II, +6 pp Phase III, +5 pp Submission-to-Launch. All cells are editable.

Current scenario NPV summary

Program-start NPV versus peak annual gross profit
Commercial gross-profit lifecycle for selected V
Gross profits are plotted on the absolute program timeline, where year 0 is Target-to-Hit initiation.

NPV table by scenario and modality

The peak-gross-profit columns are editable in the “Editable V cases” table below.

Break-even V

Editable commercial lifecycle values

Protection ends at the later of patent expiry or regulatory exclusivity expiry. Editing these values immediately updates all curves and tables.

Editable V cases

These values set the columns in the NPV table and the x-values in the NPV chart.

Protection-window check

Equations implemented

R&D model

WIP_i = 1 / Π_{j=i..N} p_j
OOP_i = WIP_i · C_i
m_i = Σ_{k<i} T_k + T_i/2
PV0_R&D = Σ_i OOP_i / (1+r)^{m_i}
CAP_launch = Σ_i OOP_i · (1+r)^{L-m_i}
PV0_R&D = CAP_launch / (1+r)^L

Commercial model

U(a) = min(1, (1-exp(-k·a))/(1-exp(-k·t_peak)))
T_protect = max(T_patent, L + E_regulatory)
E(t) = 1, t ≤ T_protect
E(t) = F + (1-F)exp(-λ(t-T_protect)), t > T_protect
GP(t;V)=V·U(t-L)·E(t)·1_{t≥L}
NPV0(V)=∫ GP(t;V)/(1+r)^t dt - PV0_R&D

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